My NFL Betting Notebook…

Week 12 to Week 17 are my best weeks of the season for NFL betting and I thought I’d share my thoughts with you on 3 matches from the Week 14 card…

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers – Thursday night game

Browns quarterback Colt McCoy had to use the handrail to get to and from the club’s training facility on Monday morning – gingerly moving on his sprained knee. Add to that the strained hamstring of Peyton Hillis and the factor of a short week, and you have yourself a major negative situation for Cleveland who only score 14.6 points per game with a full roster.

• Depending on the confirmed team news the only ‘points spread’ (handicap) option is the Steelers – with ‘Under’ a bona fide Total Points play.

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens

The opening line of Baltimore ‘-15’ handicap was swallowed up within hours and a fresh mark of -16.5 from the bookies makes it a tougher game to call.

The Colts are 3-9 ATS (Against the Spread – beating the bookies’ handicap this season) this season and face a Baltimore side that is looking to pocket the number 1 or number 2 seed in the post-season – but this might not be the rout that the line-setters are predicting.

Colts quatertback Dan Orlovsky impressed me last week with figures of 30 of 37 for 353 yards gained and 2 touchdowns with the only real negative a poor interception – question is can he bring it to the table against Baltimore.

• It’s true, the Raven’s won’t be giving Dan anywhere near as much charity, but if he keeps it simple and runs the ball we could see Indianapolis cover the handicap for only the 4^th time this season.

Oakland Raiders at Green Bay Packers

The problem for Oakland here is that their offense is no powerhouse and they are yielding 373 yards per game defensively – and when you’re pitched up against a Green Bay side that is averaging 39.0 points at home, the only solution is to keep the score down by playing ugly. Green Bay have been set a -11 pts handicap this weekend.

Can they do it? Well technically this is a good handicap for a team that is won 12 lost 0 for the season, but the layers are understandably wary of the Packers’ defense that leaked 35 points at the weekend, to a team that was on a 3 game losing streak and that averages less than 30 points a game.

• The line dropped from 12 to 11 in quick time – with the total shifting down a couple of points also. I can see where the backers are coming from, and of the two I’d sooner bet on the Under points total at 53 rather than with Oakland +11.